Sylvie Claire / November 3, 2020
The big day has arrived, and if Joe Biden arrives in the position of favorite, Donald Trump hopes to create a surprise.
The American president needs to keep several swing states in the South and Pennsylvania.
Early voting, with 100 million Americans who have already voted, could complicate the count.
Will America say "You’re Fired" to Donald Trump or offer him a second term? After 18 months of an intense campaign disrupted by the Covid-19, it is time for the verdict of the polls. Americans vote on Tuesday, or rather continue to vote, when nearly 100 million people have already handed in their ballots via early voting.
Joe Biden comes in as the favorite, with a nationwide lead of around 7 points that has remained consistent in the polls. But the specter of 2016 and the surprise loss of Hillary Clinton is remembered, and a surprise is not ruled out.
To win, Donald Trump needs to keep all the swing states in the South (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona) and hang on to Pennsylvania at all costs. And the duel promises to be close there, as the gap narrows to a narrow 2.5 point lead for Joe Biden, according to the polls from RealClearPolitics. This is within the margin of error, and very close to Hillary Clinton's latest barometer (+1.9), and the Democratic candidate was disillusioned, dropping a few tens of thousands of votes.
Will we know the winner in the evening? Nothing is acquired. Florida is expected to have completed its recount by 11 p.m. (5 a.m. Wednesday KST), and a Joe Biden victory would knock out the US president. If Donald Trump wins, then we would probably have to wait for the Pennsylvania verdict, which we might not know until Friday.